What will the next influenza season bring about: seasonal influenza or the new A(H1N1)v? An analysis of German influenza surveillance data.
Identifieur interne : 000393 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000392; suivant : 000394What will the next influenza season bring about: seasonal influenza or the new A(H1N1)v? An analysis of German influenza surveillance data.
Auteurs : H. Upphoff [Allemagne] ; S. Geis ; A. Grüber ; Am HauriSource :
- Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin [ 1560-7917 ] ; 2009.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- ADN bactérien (génétique), ADN bactérien (isolement et purification), Allemagne (épidémiologie), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains (MeSH), Morbidité (tendances), Prévision (MeSH), Saisons (MeSH), Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A (classification), Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A (génétique), Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A (pathogénicité), Surveillance de la population (MeSH), Variation génétique (MeSH), Virulence (MeSH), Épidémies de maladies (MeSH).
- MESH :
- génétique : ADN bactérien, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A.
- isolement et purification : ADN bactérien.
- pathogénicité : Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A.
- tendances : Morbidité.
- épidémiologie : Allemagne, Grippe humaine.
- Humains, Prévision, Saisons, Surveillance de la population, Variation génétique, Virulence, Épidémies de maladies.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Allemagne.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- DNA, Bacterial (genetics), DNA, Bacterial (isolation & purification), Disease Outbreaks (MeSH), Forecasting (MeSH), Genetic Variation (MeSH), Germany (epidemiology), Humans (MeSH), Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype (classification), Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype (genetics), Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype (pathogenicity), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Morbidity (trends), Population Surveillance (MeSH), Seasons (MeSH), Virulence (MeSH).
- MESH :
- chemical , genetics : DNA, Bacterial.
- chemical , isolation & purification : DNA, Bacterial.
- geographic , epidemiology : Germany.
- classification : Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- genetics : Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype.
- pathogenicity : Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype.
- trends : Morbidity.
- Disease Outbreaks, Forecasting, Genetic Variation, Humans, Population Surveillance, Seasons, Virulence.
Abstract
For the next influenza season (winter 2009-10) the relative contributions to virus circulation and influenza-associated morbidity of the seasonal influenza viruses A(H3N2), A(H1N1) and B, and the new influenza A(H1N1)v are still unknown. We estimated the chances of seasonal influenza to circulate during the upcoming season using data of the German influenza sentinel scheme from 1992 to 2009. We calculated type and subtype-specific indices for past exposure and the corresponding morbidity indices for each season. For the upcoming season 2009-10 our model suggests that it is unlikely that influenza A(H3N2) will circulate with more than a low intensity, seasonal A(H1N1) with more than a low to moderate intensity, and influenza B with more than a low to median intensity. The probability of a competitive circulation of seasonal influenza A with the new A(H1N1)v is low, increasing the chance for the latter to dominate the next influenza season in Germany.
PubMed: 19679036
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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We estimated the chances of seasonal influenza to circulate during the upcoming season using data of the German influenza sentinel scheme from 1992 to 2009. We calculated type and subtype-specific indices for past exposure and the corresponding morbidity indices for each season. For the upcoming season 2009-10 our model suggests that it is unlikely that influenza A(H3N2) will circulate with more than a low intensity, seasonal A(H1N1) with more than a low to moderate intensity, and influenza B with more than a low to median intensity. The probability of a competitive circulation of seasonal influenza A with the new A(H1N1)v is low, increasing the chance for the latter to dominate the next influenza season in Germany.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">19679036</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2009</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>07</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2013</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>01</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1560-7917</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>14</Volume><Issue>32</Issue><PubDate><Year>2009</Year><Month>Aug</Month><Day>13</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Euro Surveill.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>What will the next influenza season bring about: seasonal influenza or the new A(H1N1)v? 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Geis</name><name sortKey="Gruber, A" sort="Gruber, A" uniqKey="Gruber A" first="A" last="Grüber">A. Grüber</name><name sortKey="Hauri, Am" sort="Hauri, Am" uniqKey="Hauri A" first="Am" last="Hauri">Am Hauri</name></noCountry><country name="Allemagne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Upphoff, H" sort="Upphoff, H" uniqKey="Upphoff H" first="H" last="Upphoff">H. Upphoff</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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